How we grade ourselves, in public
Models & Evidence
Tofiko publishes its own accuracy rather than a marketing number. These pages explain what the Performance and Track record screens measure, and how to read them sceptically.
3 pages · about 13 min to read all
What you'll take away
- How to read the Performance page, including when the market is ahead
- What the confidence bands promise and how that promise is tested
- What the Labs let you test, and the traps in backtesting
Models & Evidence
How to read the Performance pageRead the Performance page tile by tile: genuine forecasts, Brier model vs market, the profitability gate, and the live pre-registered experiments — and what to do with what you find.
5 min5 sections
The Track record pageWhat the Track record page shows, how it differs from Performance, why backfilled history is excluded from the honest counts, and how big a sample has to be before a run of picks means anything.4 min4 sections
Labs: Strategy Lab, Backtest and Martingale LabWhat the three Labs tools let you test, how to read a backtest without fooling yourself, the difference between in-sample and walk-forward, and why the Martingale Lab exists to show ruin.4 min5 sections