Match previews

The prediction pages at /predictions are Tofiko's public face: a written preview for individual fixtures, with the model's numbers and the market's price side by side. They are open to everyone — no account, no paywall on the page itself, and indexable by search engines.

Three levels of page#

• The index — the entry point at /predictions. It lists the fixtures that currently have a preview, newest and nearest first.
• League hubs — one level down, grouping previews by competition. Use these when you follow a single league and want its fixtures together rather than mixed into a global list.
• Per-match previews — the page for one fixture. This is where the analysis lives.

If you would rather scan the whole schedule with filters than read prose, the All Matches screen is the tool for that job; previews are for going deep on one game.

What is on a preview#

A per-match preview pulls together four kinds of thing:

1. Model probabilities — what Tofiko's ensemble makes of the fixture. The models are Poisson and Dixon-Coles, which work from goal rates, blended with Elo, which works from team strength. How our models work explains the ensemble; the Poisson distribution explains why goal-based models are built the way they are.
2. The market price — the bookmakers' odds for the same fixture, so the comparison that matters is on one screen. A probability without a price tells you nothing you can act on.
3. Analysis prose — a written read of the fixture, derived from the same data rather than written fresh by hand for each match.
4. Context — head-to-head history and recent form for both sides, plus the usual match-detail sections.

What is public and what needs a plan#

The page is public, but the depth of what it shows follows your plan:

The full breakdown, including prices, lives in plans and billing.

How to use one properly#

1. Open the preview for a fixture you already intend to bet, rather than shopping the list for something to back.
2. Read the model probability, then read the price, then decide which is out of line.
3. Check the form and head-to-head sections for anything the numbers cannot see — a fixture congestion run, a derby, a dead rubber.
4. If you take the bet, log it in My Picks at the price you actually got.

Sharing and finding them#

Because the prediction pages are public and indexable, you can link one to someone who has never used Tofiko and they will see the forecast without signing up. That also means search engines can surface them, so a preview is often how people arrive at the site in the first place.