Bankroll Simulator

Twenty-four bettors. One hundred and fifty bets each. Every one of them holds the same 6% edge — a real, positive expectation on every wager. The only thing that differs is how they size the stake.

How it reads#

• Each line is one bettor's season. They are not competing strategies with different skill; they are the same skill, staked differently.
• Flat staking wobbles and drifts upward. Almost nothing busts, because no single loss can take a meaningful share of the bankroll.
• Martingale — doubling after each loss — produces a few spectacular lines and a large share that fall straight to zero. The bust rate under the readout is the number that matters, not the best path on screen.
• Run it several times. One run is one sample. The shape that repeats across runs is the real result; the ending of any single run is not.

What it does not tell you#

It does not tell you whether you have an edge. It assumes one, generously, and then shows that the assumption is not enough on its own. Nothing here is a forecast of your own bankroll, and the 6% is a setting rather than a claim about anything we sell.

The simulation also treats every bet as independent and identically priced. Real seasons are neither: prices move, correlated fixtures land on the same afternoon, and a bad week is rarely a clean coin flip.

When to use it#

Reach for it when you are deciding how much, not what. It is the argument against chasing, in a form you can watch rather than be told. If you want the reasoning in words, read bankroll management; for the specific trap this page dramatises, see why the Martingale always ends the same way; and for the full set of progressions side by side, staking plans compared.

To size one individual bet from an edge you actually believe, use the Kelly calculator. To ask how long a losing streak has to run before a system breaks, use risk of ruin.