Double Chance: Covering Two Outcomes at Once

The three tickets

• 1X — home win or draw. Loses only to an away win.
• 12 — either side wins. Loses only to a draw.
• X2 — draw or away win. Loses only to a home win.

Settlement is 90 minutes + stoppage, like 1X2 itself.

The price is just arithmetic

Double Chance is fully derived from the 1X2 probabilities: P(1X) = P(home) + P(draw), and the fair odds are 1 ÷ that sum. Take fair 1X2 probabilities of 49% / 28% / 23%:

• 1X: 49% + 28% = 77% → fair odds ≈ 1.30
• 12: 49% + 23% = 72% → fair odds ≈ 1.39
• X2: 28% + 23% = 51% → fair odds ≈ 1.96

Two practical consequences. First, always start from fair probabilities — the margin distorts each 1X2 price, and it compounds when you add two of them (strip it with the fair odds calculator). Second, you can price any Double Chance yourself and compare it with the quoted one: bookmakers sometimes leave the derived markets slightly staler than the main line.

Double chance vs draw no bet

The perennial confusion. Backing the home side:

DNB pays more when the team wins; 1X converts the draw from a refund into a profit. High draw probability favours 1X; low draw probability favours DNB's better price.

When the shape makes sense — and the honest caveat

Double Chance suits situations where the draw is live and you mostly want to be against one team — away underdogs (X2), derby matches, bad-weather slogs. What it never does is create value: odds of 1.30 mean roughly a 77% bet, and losing 23% of near-evens bets stings more than people expect. The safety is psychological as much as financial — judge it with expected value, not comfort.

On Tofiko, Double Chance probabilities (model-derived and market-derived) appear on match pages — always computed from fair, margin-free 1X2 probabilities.